Mediterranean ECA Fuels Mix Shift: HSFO & MGO Surge

Overview of the Mediterranean ECA

The Mediterranean Emission Control Area (ECA) became operational on 1 May 2025, imposing stricter sulphur limits (< 0.1 % S) across the region. VPS, the provider of bunker testing and quantity surveys, has tracked fuel volumes and quality in the top ten Mediterranean ports over the six months before and after the ECA’s launch, covering 1 Nov 2024‑30 Apr 2025 and 1 May‑31 Oct 2025 respectively.

Pre‑ECA Fuel Profile

During the pre‑ECA period, VPS examined 1 610 852 mt of marine fuels. The breakdown was:

• 53 % VLSFO
• 28 % HSFO
• 16 % MGO
• 2 % ULSFO
• 1 % Biofuels

These ten ports accounted for roughly 90 % of all bunkered fuel tested in the wider Mediterranean. Off‑specification (off‑spec) incidents were 5.5 % of all fuels, with individual grades reporting:

• VLSFO – 6 % (viscosity, cat‑fines)
• HSFO – 6 % (viscosity, density, water)
• MGO – 3 % (flash point)
• ULSFO – 2 % (pour point)
• Biofuels – 0 %

The dominant off‑spec parameters pre‑ECA were viscosity for VLSFO, density for HSFO, and flash point for MGO.

Post‑ECA Fuel Profile

From 1 May to 31 Oct 2025, VPS tested 1 888 799 mt of fuel, with a markedly different mix:

• 30 % VLSFO
• 29 % HSFO
• 30 % MGO
• 8 % ULSFO
• 4 % Biofuels

The top ten ports again supplied about 90 % of the total, now representing an almost 20 % increase in overall bunkering volume.

Off‑specification across all grades fell slightly to 5.1 %, but the distribution changed:

• VLSFO – 5 % (sulphur, cat‑fines)
• HSFO – 3 % (density)
• MGO – 4 % (pour point, FAME)
• ULSFO – 20 % (pour point, sulphur, TSP, CCAI, water, viscosity)
• Biofuels – 2 % (FAME)

The spike in ULSFO off‑spec rates was linked to 78 stems (≈ 29 k mt) out of 341 delivered stems (≈ 148 k mt) failing the criteria.

Impact on Fuel Mix and Off‑Specification Rates

Comparing the two periods:

| Fuel | Pre‑ECA Volume | Post‑ECA Volume | % Change | |------|----------------|-----------------|-----------| | VLSFO | 0.85 Mt | 0.57 Mt | –23 % | | HSFO | 0.45 Mt | 0.55 Mt | +20 % | | MGO | 0.26 Mt | 0.57 Mt | +107 % | | ULSFO | 0.04 Mt | 0.15 Mt | +375 % | | Biofuels | 0.02 Mt | 0.08 Mt | +400 % |

The data confirm a significant shift away from VLSFO toward cleaner fuels and increased scrubber utilisation. HSFO volumes rose by 20 % and MGO by 107 %, signalling higher compliance fuel demand. ULSFO and biofuel supplies quadrupled and quintupled, respectively, reflecting a broader move toward low‑sulphur and alternative fuels.

Off‑specification trends also illustrate the evolving quality landscape. While VLSFO and HSFO off‑spec rates dropped, MGO rose modestly, and ULSFO experienced a ten‑fold jump, underscoring the need for vigilant testing, especially for the newer fuel grades.

Key Takeaways

• The Mediterranean ECA has reshaped the regional fuel mix, with a 20 % rise in HSFO and an over‑100 % jump in MGO.
• VLSFO consumption fell 23 %, indicating a shift to compliant fuels or scrubber‑fitted vessels.
• ULSFO and biofuel volumes increased 4‑fold and 5‑fold, respectively, signalling growing interest in alternative and low‑sulphur options.
• Off‑spec rates remain around 5 % overall, but ULSFO off‑specs surged to 20 %, highlighting quality challenges with this grade.
• Proactive fuel testing continues to be essential to protect vessels, crews, and the environment while meeting ECA requirements.

VPS’s PortStats platform remains the primary source of these insights, providing real‑time data on bunker volumes and quality across the Mediterranean.

For more detailed information on marine fuel testing or PortStats, contact steve.bee@vpsveritas.com.