Qatar Flags Post‑2035 LNG Crunch as AI Demand Accelerates

Rising AI‑Driven Gas Demand

During a recent forum in Doha, Qatar’s Energy Minister Abdul‑Kader Al‑Kaabi highlighted a looming shortage in the LNG and natural‑gas markets after 2035. He explained that the rapid expansion of artificial‑intelligence (AI) systems will lift global LNG demand to roughly 700 million tonnes per year over the next decade, up from the current 400 million tonnes. Al‑Kaabi noted that AI‑related consumption could account for 10 %–20 % of total gas demand in many countries.

The minister also pointed out that the price of crude oil remains below the $70‑$80 per barrel range that would normally fund the capital required for the new LNG infrastructure needed to meet this demand surge.

IEA Forecasts Record Export Capacity

A recent International Energy Agency (IEA) report projects a record 300 billion cubic metres (bcm) of LNG export capacity will be added by 2030. The United States and Qatar are expected to provide the bulk of this new capacity. The U.S. LNG sector has already approved more than 80 bcm of liquefaction capacity in the current year, the highest level ever recorded.

Sadamori, the IEA’s Director of Energy Markets and Security, said that the additional supply should relieve tightness in global gas markets and exert downward pressure on prices, providing relief for importers worldwide.

Contrasting Views on U.S. Supply

Despite the optimistic outlook, some industry figures warn that the U.S. market could still experience an oversupply. TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné has recently cautioned about a looming LNG glut in the United States. This concern follows the announcement by Texas‑based NextDecade Corp. of a positive final investment decision (FID) on Train 4 at its Rio Grande LNG liquefaction facility.

The potential for a glut highlights the delicate balance between expanding export capacity and maintaining price stability, especially in a market that has already seen significant volatility in the past few years.

Implications for Marine Fuels and Shipping

While the article focuses on LNG, the broader context of energy supply and demand has direct repercussions for marine fuels. Shipping operators rely on stable fuel prices and predictable supply chains. A post‑2035 shortage of LNG could drive up bunker costs or push operators to consider alternative fuels such as HSFO380 or VLSFO.

Additionally, the potential oversupply in the U.S. market may lead to lower freight rates for LNG‑fueled vessels, but could also create opportunities for carriers to shift cargoes to other energy‑rich regions where supply remains constrained.

Bottom Line

Qatar’s warning underscores the need for continued investment in LNG infrastructure to meet the projected demand driven by AI. While the IEA forecasts a substantial increase in export capacity that should ease global supply pressure, divergent views on the U.S. market remind stakeholders that the energy landscape remains highly dynamic. Shipping companies and marine fuel suppliers must monitor these developments closely to navigate the evolving market conditions.